Theo tin The Judy Ford Watson Center for Pubic Policy by Christopher New Port University
October 4, 2018 Democrat Wexton leads Republican incumbent Comstock by 7 points in 10th District congressional race, 51%-44%; among most committed voters, Wexton’s lead grows to 11% Summary of Key Findings 1. In our likely voter model, Democrat Jennifer Wexton leads Republican incumbent Barbara Comstock 51% to 44%. 2. In our second model, restricted to the most committed voters, Wexton’s lead expands to 11 points, 53%-42%. 3. Democrats benefit from a 16-point “enthusiasm gap” in the 10th Congressional District. 4. 51% of voters in the district strongly disapprove of the job President Trump is doing, while 25% strongly approve. 5. In the U.S. Senate contest, Democratic incumbent Tim Kaine holds a 21-point advantage over Republican Corey Stewart among 10th Congressional District voters, 55%-34%. For further information contact: Dr. Rachel Bitecofer, Assistant Director Wason Center for Public Policy Dr. Quentin Kidd, Director Wason Center for Public Policy e-mail rachel.bitecofer@cnu.edu e-mail qkidd@cnu.edu O: (757) 594-8997 M: (541) 729-9824 O: (757) 594-8499 M: (757) 775-6932 Analysis Among registered voters who have voted in at least two of the last four elections in Virginia, or who were new voters to Virginia in 2017 (n=794), Democrat Jennifer Wexton currently holds a 7-point advantage over incumbent Republican Congresswoman Barbara Comstock. Wexton leads Comstock 51% to 44% with 5% undecided in Virginia’s 10th congressional district (see Model 1). If that model is restricted to only those voters who also said they were definitely going to vote and were very enthusiastic about the coming election (n=711), Wexton’s lead over Comstock grows to 11-points, 53% to 42%, with 5% undecided (see Model 2). In both models, partisans are firmly entrenched in their camps, with both Comstock and Wexton taking over 90% of their partisans’ support. Independents overall break for Wexton by 18%, but that lead among Independents grows to 23% in the more restrictive turnout model. Wexton holds a lead among women of 11%, and that lead grows to 19% in the more restrictive model. “Like many of her peers around the country, Wexton is benefiting from a midterm atmosphere that significantly favors Democrats,” said Dr. Rachel Bitecofer, assistant director of the Wason Center. “Democrats have maintained a generic ballot advantage of around 7-points over the past few months and that is giving Democrats a Trump bump.” Despite reelecting Comstock by 6-points in 2016, the 10th District broke for Democrat Ralph Northam by 9-points in the 2017 governor’s race on a surge of turnout by Democratic voters. Although incumbency is a powerful advantage, in some circumstances the benefits of incumbency are outweighed by the national context of the race. If the electorate in the 10th Congressional District is similar to the electorate in 2017, Wexton may actually overperform our more restrictive 2nd model. In this analysis, Republicans and Democrats are divided fairly equally. But in 2017, Democrats outperformed Republicans as a share of the electorate by 9 points. In what might be a sign that such a difference in turnout will repeat this Election Day, Democrats outnumber Republicans 75%-59% among 10th District voters who say they are “very enthusiastic” about going to the polls in this election. Although the Wason Center is not polling Virginia’s U.S. Senate race statewide, we wanted to get a sense of how the race between incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Kaine and Republican Corey Stewart stood in one of the most competitive congressional races in the state. Among voters in the 10th District, Kaine holds a commanding 21-point lead over Stewart, 55% to 34%. Libertarian candidate Matt Waters is receiving 5% of the vote, and 6% say they are undecided. The difficult election cycle facing both Comstock and Stewart is demonstrated by President Donald Trump’s low job approval among likely voters in the 10th Congressional District. Voters disapprove of the job Trump is doing by 59% to 38%. Wexton holds a strong lead among voters under age 45, but voters 45 and older split their vote nearly evenly between the two.NEW YORK, Oct. 9, 2018 /PRNewswire/ — Whether you’re at home or far away, your vote counts! With absentee deadlines closing soon, it’s time to act – and turn your opinion into action to help decide the future of our nation! To mobilize America’s absentee community, DoSomething.org has launched the first-ever National Absentee Ballot Day. On October 9, hundreds of DoSomething’s hand-selected VIP members will run voter registration drives and host on-the-ground parties to help students request and submit their absentee ballots. DoSomething will also host a Reddit AMA to answer questions about the absentee voting process. Nearly 40% of votes in the last presidential election were cast early. And out-of-state college students prefer voting absentee 2:1. For millions of college students who are often far away from home, absentee voting will be critical in deciding the election. Join us on October 9th to celebrate the power of your voice by securing your absentee vote! In addition to participating in on-the-ground events for National Absentee Ballot Day, by visiting votingabsentee.org, millions of young Americans can: Register to vote – it just takes two minutes and is the most important thing you’ll do today. Request an absentee ballot – it’s easier and faster than you think. Help friends get registered – be part of the movement and empower others. Check registration status – triple-check you’re ready to make your voice heard! “Absentee ballots could literally decide the election…before the election,” says DoSomething.org CEO Aria Finger. “Problem is, millions of young and first-time voters want to vote absentee and just don’t know how. National Absentee Ballot Day solves that problem by bridging the information gap and giving young voters the resources, community, and information they need and deserve to cast their ballot and speak up – no matter where they are. Let’s do this!” DoSomething.org has already driven 75,000+ voter registrations in 2018 alone. Now it’s teaming up with influencers, brands, and the most civically engaged generation of young people ever to make absentee voting easier (and more exciting!) than ever. Don’t miss out — join us in celebrating and empowering the millions of young voters making their voices heard from around the world. DoSomething.org is partnering with incredibly influential and impactful brands to register young people, including theSkimm, Warby Parker, PopSugar, When We All Vote, Upworthy, Quizlet, Reddit, Twilio, CAA, Smosh, Sweetgreen, Splashthat, and DMV.org. Notable activists and celebrities supporting DoSomething include Chelsea Clinton, Katie Couric, Laverne Cox, Adam Levine, actor and official under 18 ambassador Joshua Rush, environmental activist Xiuhtezcatl Martinez, actress Gina Rodriguez, actress Alisha Boe, activist Lane Murdock, activist Nupol Kiazolu, and Women’s March founder Breanne Butler. For more information on National Absentee Ballot Day and to see events near you, visit votingabsentee.org. About DoSomething.org DoSomething.org is the largest tech company exclusively for young people and social change. We’re activating 6 million young people (and counting!) to do good in every US area code and in 131 countries. Using our digital platform, members join DoSomething’s volunteer and civic action campaigns to make offline impact at scale. Our members have clothed half of America’s homeless youth. They’ve cleaned up 3.7 million cigarette butts. They’ve run the world’s largest youth-led sports equipment drive. And more! Young people have the power and the passion to transform their communities — we help them get it done. Let’s Do This. SOURCE DoSomething.org Related Links http://www.dosomething.org
Theo thăm dò ý kiến mới nhất của The Judy Ford Watson Center for Pubic Policy thì ứng cử viên Wexton của Đảng Dân chủ đang dẫn trước dân biểu liên bang Barbara Comstock 7 điểm trong cuộc đua Quốc hội tại địa hạt bầu cử 10 tại Virginia là 51% -44% và trong số những cử tri cam kết đi bầu cho Wexton thì điểm dẫn tăng lên 11%
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/dosomethingorg-launches-first-ever-national-absentee-ballot-day-300727851.html]]>