Theo tin Quinnipiac University
In an early look at the 2020 Democratic presidential primary, former Vice President Joseph Biden is the choice of 29 percent of Democrats and voters leaning Democratic, with 19 percent for U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and 12 percent for former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke of Texas, according to a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today.
U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris of California has 8 percent of Democrats and Democratic leaners, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University National Poll finds. No other Democratic contender gets more than 4 percent.
Democrats and Democratic leaners say 70 – 27 percent that age is not an important factor in their vote. Looking at other possible factors, these voters say:
72 – 21 percent that political ideology is an important factor;
67 – 23 percent that bipartisanship is an important factor;
71 – 24 percent that standing up to Republicans is important;
76 – 20 percent that electability is important;
87 – 10 percent that sharing their views is important;
84 – 13 percent, including 75 – 25 percent among black voters, that race is not an important factor;
84 – 12 percent, including 83 – 14 percent among women, that gender is not important.
It is more important that a presidential candidate be a great leader, 55 percent of all voters say, while 36 percent say it’s more important for a candidate to have great policy ideas.
“Hungry for a candidate to take on President Donald Trump, Democrats and Democratic leaners put the three B’s, Biden, Bernie and Beto, at the top in a race where age, race and gender take a back seat to electability and shared views,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
Republicans and Republican leaners remain loyal to President Donald Trump, saying 56 – 35 percent they do not want to see someone run against him in a Republican primary.
But 53 percent of American voters say they definitely will not vote for Trump in the 2020 general election if he is the Republican candidate. Another 30 percent say they definitely will vote for Trump and 13 percent say they will consider voting for Trump. Definitely voting for Trump are 77 percent of Republicans, one percent of Democrats and 21 percent of independent voters.
“The loyal base stays the course, but 53 percent of all American voters say they’ve had enough and will not vote for President Trump,” Malloy said.
There are wide party, gender and racial gaps as American voters support 54 – 39 percent the direct election of the president by popular vote rather than through the Electoral College:
Support for direct election is 82 – 13 percent among Democrats and 51 – 39 percent among independent voters. Republicans are opposed 71 – 25 percent;
Women support direct election 60 – 33 percent. Men are divided as 48 percent support direct election, with 45 percent opposed;
White voters are divided as 50 percent support it, with 44 percent opposed. Black voters support it 71 – 21 percent, with Hispanic voters supporting it 67 – 28 percent.
U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York gets a negative 23 – 36 percent favorability rating, with 38 percent who haven’t heard enough about her to form an opinion. Rep. Ocasio-Cortez has been good for the Democratic Party, 33 percent of voters say, as 36 percent say she’s been bad for the party.
“All is definitely not A-OK for AOC. Most voters either don’t like the firebrand freshman Congresswoman or don’t know who she is,” Malloy said.
From March 21 – 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,358 voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points, including the design effect. The survey includes 559 Democrats and Democratic leaners with a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percentage points, including the design effect, and 582 Republicans and Republican leaners with a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points, including the design effect.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.
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1. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) If the Democratic primary for president were being held today, and the candidates were: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Beto O’Rourke, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar, Julian Castro, Tulsi Gabbard, Jay Inslee, John Hickenlooper, John Delaney, Pete Buttigieg, Andrew Yang, and Marianne Williamson, for whom would you vote?
DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS……………………
POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
LIBERAL….. Mod/
Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk
Biden 29% 14% 26% 37% 32% 28% 29% 44%
Sanders 19 21 23 15 22 17 13 17
O’Rourke 12 9 12 14 13 11 9 16
Harris 8 15 10 5 5 11 8 8
Warren 4 10 5 1 4 4 7 –
Booker 2 3 3 2 1 3 3 1
Gillibrand – – – 1 1 – – –
Klobuchar 2 2 3 3 2 2 4 –
Castro 1 2 1 – 1 1 – 3
Gabbard – – – – – – – –
Inslee – 1 – 1 1 – 1 –
Hickenlooper 1 1 2 – – 1 1 –
Delaney – – – – – – – –
Buttigieg 4 9 3 3 5 4 6 –
Yang – – 1 – 1 – 1 –
Williamson – – – – – – – –
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 – 1 2 – 1 –
WLDN’T VOTE(VOL) 1 – – 1 1 – 1 –
DK/NA 14 11 12 16 8 18 15 12
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2611