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2020 Election Will Be Determined by Swing Voters’ Views on the Economy

Newly released report highlights outcomes and trends from six months of “Obama-Trump” swing voter focus groups in key battleground districts in the upper Midwest.

A just-released report from the Swing Voter Project—a partnership between Engagious and Focus Pointe Global (FPG)—has concluded that the biggest factor that will influence how swing voters cast their ballots on Election Day 2020 is the state of the economy.
The report, which can be viewed here, compares outcomes across six swing voter focus groups that were held between March and August of this year in Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota. In addition to the key finding on the economy, the report also highlights critical details about swing voter behavior and opinions, including: how much news and information they’re getting and where they’re getting it; their approval of the job the president is doing; their perceptions of the Democratic challengers; and where these voters stand on other key issues that could sway their votes like the president’s trade and immigration policies, climate change, and more.
“One outcome that’s clear from these focus groups up to this point is that if the economy is good, the outlook for the president is good,” explained Rich Thau, president of Engagious and moderator of the focus groups. “But the president could be vulnerable because the swing voters who supported him the last time are not personally feeling the benefit of what they’ve been told is a ‘booming economy.’ And if the economy takes a downturn, or if these voters see their cost of goods increase due the president’s tariffs, support for him will erode.”
The Swing Voter Project will continue to conduct monthly focus groups all the way up until the 2020 Election. Video clips from each of the sessions as well as analyses and reports are available after each focus group session. You can view clips and/or register to receive the reports by visiting:
About the Swing Voter Project
Engagious, in partnership with FPG, is conducting a series of swing voter focus groups in key battleground counties across the U.S. The study kicked off March 11, 2019 in Appleton, WI. Each study location is chosen because it is in a U.S. county that had a disproportionately high number of swing voters who shifted their support from the nominee of one party to the other between the presidential elections of 2012 and 2016. Voters selected to participate in the groups consist of those who voted for Barack Obama in the 2012 election and then voted for Donald Trump in 2016, and those who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 and then voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Participants in the groups are asked a number of discrete questions using the Perception
Analyzer dials. The unique ability of the dials to collect individualized responses in a focus group setting and display results in real-time helps eliminate “group think,” and allows the moderator to use the data to help guide the group discussion and probe deeper based off their responses. The groups will explore questions and topics surrounding the President, his Democratic challengers, as well as the key issues leading up to the 2020 election more broadly. For more information, please visit

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