Theo tin Quinnipiac University National Poll
Theo Cuộc thăm dò ngày 6 đến gày 10 tháng 11 của Quinnipiac University National Poll Biden giữ vị trí dẫn đầu nhẹ ở New Hampshire trong Bầu Cử Sơ Bộ Tổng Thống Hoa Kỳ 2020 của đảng Dân Chủ và 54 phần trăm chắc chắn sẽ không bỏ phiếu cho Bloomberg trong Bầu Cử Sơ Bộ
FOR RELEASE: NOVEMBER 11, 2019
BIDEN HOLDS SLIGHT LEAD IN NEW HAMPSHIRE DEM PRIMARY, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS;
54 PERCENT DEFINITELY WOULDN’T VOTE FOR BLOOMBERG IN PRIMARY
November 11, 2019 – Biden Holds Slight Lead In New Hampshire Dem Primary, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; 54 Percent Definitely Wouldn’t Vote For Bloomberg In Primary
Tim Malloy, Polling Analyst (203) 645-8043
Doug Schwartz, Director (203) 582-5201
FWith less than 100 days to go, former Vice President Joe Biden has an edge in New Hampshire’s Democratic primary for president, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll released today. Biden receives support from 20 percent of New Hampshire likely Democratic primary voters, with Senator Elizabeth Warren getting 16 percent, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg getting 15 percent, and Sen. Bernie Sanders at 14 percent.
Rep. Tulsi Gabbard gets 6 percent, businessman Andrew Yang gets 4 percent, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar and businessman Tom Steyer are each at 3 percent. No other candidate tops 1 percent, and 14 percent of likely voters are undecided.
Independent voters, known as “undeclared voters” in New Hampshire, who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary are divided in their top choice. Biden receives 16 percent support among these voters, while Sanders and Buttigieg get 14 percent each, and Warren and Gabbard receive 10 percent each. Among registered Democrats who are likely to vote in the primary, Biden has 25 percent, Warren has 24 percent, Buttigieg receives 16 percent, and Sanders gets 14 percent.
“New Hampshire has mountains. Iowa has plains. They couldn’t be more different except for the results of the last two Quinnipiac University polls, which both show 4 candidates in the top tier. Although Biden has a slight lead in the Granite State, it’s far from rock solid, and both states are clearly still up for grabs,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
In a separate question, only 2 percent of likely Democratic primary voters say they would definitely vote for former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg if he got into the race, while 37 percent say they would consider voting for him, and 54 percent say they definitely would not vote for him.
“If he truly is in, there is a lot of work to do. But with vast resources to draw from, Michael Bloomberg’s nascent campaign could morph from ‘under construction’ to ‘full steam ahead’ in a New York minute,” added Malloy.
There is a lot of potential for movement in the Democratic primary as 61 percent of those who express a preference say they might change their mind before the primary, while 38 percent say their mind is made up. Sanders voters are the most certain in their choice as 57 percent of Sanders voters say their mind is made up, compared to 43 percent of Biden voters, 29 percent of Warren voters, and 24 percent of Buttigieg voters.
Most likely voters are either “extremely excited” (22 percent) or “very excited” (34 percent) about the candidate they are supporting, while 33 percent are “mildly excited” and 10 percent say they are “not that excited.” Sanders voters are the most excited, as 44 percent of his voters say they are extremely excited to support his candidacy, compared to 21 percent of Warren voters, 19 percent of Biden voters, and 12 percent of Buttigieg voters.
Nearly one-third (32 percent) of New Hampshire likely Democratic primary voters say the most important candidate quality in deciding who to vote for is “someone who can win the general election,” followed by “honesty” at 24 percent, “someone who cares about people like you” at 18 percent, “good leadership skills” at 14 percent, and only 7 percent saying “experience in public office.”
Perceived electability is helping Biden, as he leads the primary with 31 percent of the vote among those who say that electability is the most important candidate quality to them. Warren gets 20 percent of these “electability” voters, while Buttigieg receives 19 percent, and Sanders gets 6 percent.
Sanders does better among those who care most about honesty, as he gets 18 percent of the vote, while Biden and Buttigieg each get 14 percent, and Warren gets 13 percent. Sanders is also the top choice for people looking for a candidate who cares about them with 25 percent support, with Warren at 13 percent, Biden getting 12 percent, and Buttigieg and Yang each at 9 percent. Buttigieg is at the top for those who most want a candidate with good leadership skills, winning 24 percent of the vote, with Warren at 19 percent, Gabbard at 14 percent, Biden at 10 percent, and Sanders at 8 percent.
Health care is the most important issue to 28 percent of likely Democratic primary voters, with climate change at 25 percent and the economy at 12 percent.
From November 6 – 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,134 New Hampshire likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points, including the design effect. The question on Michael Bloomberg was added on November 8 and was asked of 636 New Hampshire likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points, including the design effect.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.
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