Theo tin Chris Stoll
SAINT ANSELM COLLEGE SURVEY CENTER NOVEMBER 2019 POLL
These results are from the Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll based on interviews with 512 New Hampshire registered voters, including 255 that indicated an intention to vote in next February’s New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary. Interviews were conducted by landline and cellular phone between November 13th and 18th, 2019. The survey has a margin of sampling error of +/- 4.3% with a confidence interval of 95%; questions limited to Democratic primary voters have a margin of sampling error of 6.1%. Data are weighted for age and gender based on a voter demographic model derived from historical voting patterns, but are not weighted by party registration or party identification.
New Hampshire Institute of Politics Executive Director Neil Levesque summarized the results, saying, “With less than three months before the primary, the race for New Hampshire’s Democratic delegates is still in a great deal of flux. Pete Buttigieg has surged to the top of the ballot test with 25%, followed by Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, both with 15%.
Buttigieg’s bump is driven by the favorable impression he’s made on voters, with 76% having a favorable impression of him versus only 11% unfavorable. His net favorable of 65% easily bests the field, including Biden (+31%) and Warren (+39%). Primary voters also believe that he would make the best president (23%) over Warren (17%) and Biden (14%).
“However, only 36% of Democratic voters are firm in their choice for President, down from 43% in September. 57% of current Buttigieg supporters indicate that they could change their mind between now and the primary, as do 60% of Biden supporters and 72% of Warren supporters. If voters do change their mind, Warren stands to gain the most support as the second choice of 23% of voters, followed by Buttigieg with 13% and Biden with 10%.
“Buttigieg’s new lead may be vulnerable to an emerging dynamic in the Democratic race: whereas a slight majority (52%-48%) of primary voters indicated in September that they were looking for a candidate that best reflected their policy priorities, now a slight majority (50%-48) are looking for a candidate that they believe has the best chance of beating President Trump. If this trend continues, it may benefit Biden, who is viewed as the strongest nominee to face Trump by 31% of voters, a significant gap over Buttigieg (11%), Warren (11%) and Sanders (10%).
“The question of electability could well become a dominant theme in the coming months. Among all voters, Biden does best in general election matchup, with voters indicating 51%-43% that they would vote for him over Trump. The margin narrows for Buttigieg (49%-42%), Sanders (49%-46%) and Warren (47%-46%). However, when asked who they think would win a general election, voters believe by a 52%-40% margin that Trump would best Biden; they also believe he would prevail over Buttigieg (63%-26%), Sanders (65%-27%), and Warren (66%-26%). Buttigieg is benefiting today from his strong positive image, but he will likely have to convince voters that he has a good chance of beating Trump in order to consolidate his new support.
“Primary voters seem largely satisfied with the current slate of candidates,” Levesque concluded. “Of four recent or possible entrants into the race, only Deval Patrick (23%) and Michelle Obama (41%) would get significant encouragement from voters. 77% of primary voters would discourage Michael Bloomberg from entering the race, while 91% would discourage Hillary Clinton.”