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Emerson College Polls: Colorado Flips to Clinton While Trump Takes Back Arizona and Puts Georgia and Missouri Out of Reach

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Theo tin Emerson College Polling Society

November 2, 2016 Media Contact: Prof. Spencer Kimball Emerson College Polling Advisor Spencer_Kimball@emerson.edu 617-824-8737

Blunt/Kander tied in MO Senate Race. BOSTON, MA – Emerson College polls released today show Donald Trump holding a substantial lead over Hillary Clinton in two of the four states polled (Georgia and Missouri) while he and Clinton have both flipped a state where they previously trailed in Arizona and Colorado. In Georgia, Trump is winning 51% to 42%, and in Missouri he has opened up a 15-point advantage (52% to 37%), almost doubling the 8-point margin he had in a mid-October Emerson poll. Trump has also flipped Arizona to his column. Clinton led 44% to 42% in the first week of October but now trails 47% to 43%. Georgia and Arizona are two of the traditionally Red states that Democrats were hoping to turn Blue this year. In just about the only good news for Clinton in this batch of polls, she has turned the tables in Colorado. She previously trailed the GOP businessman by 4 points (42% to 38%) but now has a 3- point edge, 44% to 41%. Presidential Race – November 2 Polls Arizona Colorado Georgia Missouri Hillary Clinton 43% 44% 42% 37% Donald Trump 47% 41% 51% 52% Gary Johnson 2% 8% 2% 5% Jill Stein 2% 4% 3% 2% Unsure 5% 3% 2% 4% Sample n=700 n=750 n=650 n=650 MOE 3.6% 3.5% 3.8% 3.8% In U.S. Senate races, Democrat Michael Bennet, the senior senator for Colorado, is outperforming Clinton and currently has a 5-point advantage over Darryl Glenn. A very tight race in Missouri finds GOP Senator Roy Blunt tied with Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander at 45% apiece. The two men have similar favorability numbers, net -5 for Blunt and net -6 for Kander. In the other two Senate races polled, the GOP incumbent has seen a substantial lead melt away in recent weeks, though not enough to be overtaken. The 16-point margin that Arizona Senator John McCain held over Ann Kirkpatrick in September has dwindled to 6 points in the current poll (46% to 40%). Similarly, Georgia Senator Johnny Isakson’s 16-point advantage over Democrat Jim Barksdale shrank to 8 points (48% to 40%). However, with just one week to Election Day, both seats will very likely remain in the Republican column. senateraces2016november2pollarizonacoloradogeorgiamissouri Senate Races Arizona John McCain(R): 46% Ann Kirkpatrick (D): 40% Someone else: 6% Undecided: 9% McCain: 48% Fav/44% Unfav (+4) Kirkpatrick: 32% Fav/51% Unfav (-19) Colorado Michael Bennet (D): 47% Darryl Glenn (R): 42% Someone else: 6% Undecided: 5% Bennet: 47% Fav/38% Unfav (+9) Glenn: 41% Fav/35% Unfav (+6) Georgia Johnny Isakson (R): 48% Jim Barksdale (D): 40% Someone else: 5% Undecided: 7% Isakson: 47% Fav/ 37% Unfav (+10) Barksdale: 26% Fav/33% Unfav (-7) Missouri Roy Blunt (R): 45% Kander(D): 45% Someone else: 6% Undecided: 4% Blunt: 41% Fav/46% Unfav (-5) Kander: 38% Fav/44% Unfav (-6) At the top of the GOP ticket, Trump is drawing strength from Independents. He is trouncing Clinton with this group: by 38 points in Missouri, 22 in Georgia, and 20 in Arizona. She has a slight 3-point edge in Colorado. Trump is also doing well with men, while largely negating the gender advantage with women that Clinton enjoys in many states. For example, in Missouri and Georgia, men prefer Trump to Clinton by 16 and 24 points, respectively. However, he also garners 52% of the female vote in Missouri compared to Clinton’s 37%, and he only trails her by 6 points, 50% to 44% among women in Georgia. CALLER ID The Emerson College Missouri and Colorado polls were conducted October 28-31, under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The Arizona and Georgia polls were conducted October 29-31. All samples consisted of only likely general election voters, per the following: Missouri n=650, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.8 percentage points; Colorado n=750 with an MOE of +/- 3.5 percentage points; Arizona n=700 with an MOE of +/- 3.6 percentage points; Georgia n=650, with an MOE of +/- 3.8 percentage points. The Missouri data was weighted by 2012 election results, age, gender, and party affiliation. Colorado data: by 2012 election results, age, gender, race and party affiliation. Arizona data: by 2012 election results, age, gender, party, and race. Georgia data: by 2012 election results, age, gender, party and district. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age and party breakdowns carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only. The full methodology and results can be found at www.theecps.com

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