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Emerson College Polls: Clinton Leads in Virginia (+4), Maine (+4) and Illinois (+12) and Is Holding Her Own with Independents and Whites

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Theo tin Emerson College Polling Society

November 1, 2016 Media Contact: Prof. Spencer Kimball Emerson College Polling Advisor Spencer_Kimball@emerson.edu 617-824-8737

Following Kirk’s Debate Gaffe, Duckworth Surges in Illinois Senate Race.

BOSTON, MA — New Emerson College polls released today show Hillary Clinton running well ahead of Donald Trump in Illinois (53% to 41%) and 4 points ahead of him in both Virginia (49% to 45%) and Maine (46% to 42%). Clinton has doubled her Illinois lead to 12 points since a September 22 poll, while Trump has closed the gap in Maine, where she previously led him by 9 points. The Virginia and Maine polls were conducted after news broke that the FBI is investigating emails found on a laptop owned by top Clinton aide, Human Abedin, and her husband Anthony Weiner. The Illinois poll was completed before that news became public. Presidential Race presidentialrace2016vailme In the U.S. Senate race in Illinois, Democrat Tammy Baldwin has surged ahead of the GOP incumbent, Mark Kirk, and now leads by 18 points, 54% to 36%. This is a major jump from the 2- point edge Duckworth held in late September. Kirk came under fire for a sarcastic comment he made—about Duckworth’s Thai heritage and her military service—during a debate last week. He quickly walked back those remarks. Duckworth is seen more favorably than her opponent, with 50% of voters having a positive view of her compared to 36% who hold a negative opinion, a net of +14. Kirk’s favorable/unfavorable ratio is 36% to 48%, net -12. Voters are splitting the ticket in Illinois, with 14% of Clinton voters opting for Kirk, the Republican, in the Senate race while 23% of Trump voters are going for Duckworth. Presidential Favorable/Unfavorable uspresidentrace2016virginiaillinoismaine In the three states polled, Clinton has been aided by favorability ratings that are substantially better than Trump’s. Her net ratings are -11 (Virginia), -5 (Maine) and +7 (Illinois) compared to his -23, -24 and -32 in those states, respectively. There is a pattern in recent Emerson polls where she can only carve out a comfortable lead if her favorability numbers are much higher than his. Clinton is holding her own with Independents, white voters, and those ages 35-54, groups that ten to strongly favor Trump. Independents are breaking for her 47% to 41% in Virginia. They are evenly divided in Maine (where Trump leads 41% to 40%), and they favor him 45% to 37% in Illinois. In Virginia, she is getting 45% of the white vote, compared to his 50%. In Illinois he leads among whites 49% to 47%. With voters ages 35-54, the race is tight in all three states, with no more than 3 points separating the candidates. Clinton is also doing well with young people, ages 18 to 34, leading Trump by 11 points in Virginia, 44 in Illinois and 18 in Maine. The Emerson College New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Missouri and Utah polls were conducted October 17-19, under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. CALLER ID The Emerson College Virginia and Maine polls were conducted October 28-30, under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The Illinois poll was conducted October 27-30. All samples consisted of only likely general election voters, per the following: Virginia n=800, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.4 percentage points; Illinois n=500 with an MOE of +/- 4.3 percentage points; and Maine n=750 with an MOE of +/- 3.5 percentage points. The Illinois and Virginia data was weighted by 2012 election results, age, gender, race and party affiliation. The Maine data was weighted by 2012 election results, age, gender, party affiliation and district. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age and party breakdowns carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only. The full methodology and results can be found at www.theecps.com.

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