Theo tin Emerson College Polling SocietyNovember 1, 2016 Media Contact: Prof. Spencer Kimball Emerson College Polling Advisor Spencer_Kimball@emerson.edu 617-824-8737
Senate Map Gives Dems at Least 50 Seats.
BOSTON, MA – Amidst a general tightening of the race in key battleground states and a pattern of both Democratic and Republican voters coming home to the major-party candidates, Emerson College Polling is predicting that Hillary Clinton will win the Electoral College by a landslide, 323-215. The map, shown above, reflects Emerson polling results in battleground and other states, combined with RealClearPolitics polling averages in those states Emerson did not survey. In battleground Senate races, Emerson also projects that Democrats will come out of the election with 50 seats or more. That would be enough to claim a Senate majority if Clinton is elected and Tim Kaine, as Vice President, becomes the tie-breaking vote. Our final round of polls suggest that the following Democratic challengers will flip GOP seats in four states: Tammy Duckworth vs. Mark Kirk in Illinois, Russ Feingold vs. Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, Jason Kander vs. Roy Blunt in Missouri and Katie McGinty vs. Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania. Presidential Race – Polls Published November 7 Ohio Nevada Missouri NH Hillary Clinton 39% 47% 41% 45% Donald Trump 46% 46% 47% 44% Gary Johnson 7% 4% 7% 5% Jill Stein 3% 1% 2% 3% Unsure 6% 2% 4% 3% Sample n=900 n=600 n=750 n=1,000 MOE 3.2% 3.9% 3.5% 3.0% Two of four polls Emerson published today are leaning toward Clinton, both by a single point and well within the margin of error. In Nevada, Clinton is ahead 47% to 46%. In New Hampshire, her lead is 45% to 44%. The other two surveys show Trump leading, but with more breathing room. He has a 6-point advantage in Missouri, 47% to 41%, and a 7-point edge in Ohio, 46% to 39%. The most significant shift since earlier Emerson polls came in Ohio, where an October 29 survey had the race tied at 45% each. Since then, Trump gained 7 points while Clinton lost 6 points, largely due to long- reluctant John Kasich primary voters finally moving to the Trump camp. In Missouri, Trump saw a 15- point advantage (52% to 37%) on November 2 shrink to 6 points in today’s poll with 7% of voters sticking with Gary Johnson, 3% remaining with Stein and 3% unsure. In the battle to control the U.S. Senate, two of the polls released today give a slight advantage to the Democratic candidate: Jason Kander in Missouri and Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada. Kander leads GOP incumbent Roy Blunt, 46% to 45%, while Masto is up 48% to 47% versus Joe Heck in the race to fill retiring Senator Harry Reid’s seat. New Hampshire’s Kelly Ayotte has seen a 6-point lead over Democrat Maggie Hassan cut to 3 points (49% to 46%). There are virtually no undecided voters remaining, although 5% of respondents plan to vote for “someone else.” Ohio Senator Republican Rob Portman continues to hold a wide advantage over his challenger Ted Strickland, 49% to 28%. CALLER ID The Emerson College polls for Nevada, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Ohio were conducted November 4-5 under the supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. All samples consisted of only likely general election voters, per the following: Nevada n= 600 with a MOE of +/- 3.9 percentage points; Missouri n= 750 with MOE of +/- 3.5 percentage points; Ohio n= 900 with a MOE of 3.2 percentage points; New Hampshire n= 1,000 with a MOE of +/- 3.0 percentage points. The Nevada data was weighted by 2012 election results, race, age, party affiliation, and gender. The Missouri results were weighted by 2012 election results, age, party affiliation, and gender. The New Hampshire results were weighted by age, party affiliation, and gender. The Ohio results were weighted by age, gender, party affiliation, and region. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age and party breakdowns carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only. The full methodology and results can be found at www.theecps.com.
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